Our friends at Caesars Palace have seven teams currently projected for 10 or more wins (Patriots, Chiefs, Colts, Eagles, Rams, Saints and Chargers). 2. Odell Beckham Jr. (ADP: 15.5, WR5; My Rank: WR4): If you want a WR, he has a legit shot to be the top fantasy wideout this season. Look, this article has a bunch of player targets by round coming up, but the majority of this article is about theory and strategy. So there are many ways, but here's how I go about it: 1. Half-Draked and a Kittle Drunk (@jesseghiorzi), 7. In July 2018, we had no idea that Chicago Bears defensive lineman Akiem Hicks would finish the year with more rushing yards than Le'Veon Bell. Every draft pick, every waiver move, potential trade, start/sit decision and every other move. Cook is going three rounds and 34 picks ahead of Carson at the moment). That Zay Jones would finish with more fantasy points than A.J. Example Round 8 target: Mike Williams (ADP: 82.9, WR30; My Rank: WR29): As discussed, this is the area where you start looking at players with upside who have the opportunity to step into larger roles. The crew welcomes in The Godfathers of Fantasy Football Matthew Berry as they discuss everything Fantasy Life(Both his incredible book and the app). Do you have an IR spot? Miami Dolphins WR DeVante Parker. 9. WR -- 68% QB-RB-WR Cowboys WR Michael Gallup (ADP: WR32, 87.6 overall) outscores fellow Cowboys WR Amari Cooper (ADP: WR10, 32.6 overall). I have him in some dynasty leagues and absolutely love him. So how do we do that? But over the years, fantasy football became insanely popular and eclipsed all other fantasy sports by a significant margin. Let's take out the names and just go by the top three players, regardless of name, at the tight end position in fantasy. I am pro-handcuff, especially if it's a situation in which you know who the replacement would be. This is where you start to see flaws in some of the running backs, but WR is still at a stud level. Thankfully, somehow Rodgers has moved into the top 10 QBs being drafted on ESPN despite coming off a year where he was QB13 on a points-per-game basis. 4. Fantasy football can bring out the best in people … and the worst. Look, I know. Most years I'm right. Matthew Berry (ESPN, The Talented Mr. Roto), the face of fantasy football co-founded the app as a place for fans to chat about sports, get fantasy advice, and even find sleepers for your team. 7. Those top five teams in kicker points? And certainly everything else you read/see/hear this preseason will be about players and their values, both high and low. In fact, 2016 was the last time a Saints WR not named Michael Thomas saw 70-plus targets. You heard me: The increase in production that the top three TEs gave you in 2018 over the other TE starters was more than double the edge the top three at the position gave you in the previous five seasons. Draft day is just one piece of the puzzle. ... or some such. At this point in the draft, you should have the core of your starting lineup. Obviously I'm ignoring the age thing on Johnson. You remember fun, right? As long as we're talking about trying new things, try some different league types. 7. Williams is at the top of that list. However, there is much that is new this year as well. And had he qualified last season, he would have led the league in both deep completions and deep attempts per game. 9. I watch, listen, read and research like crazy. That the Jaguars will have a pass-happy and fantasy-friendly offense this year. Am I drafting on ESPN.com (or the ESPN App), where more people draft than any other site in the world? That ... that is a lot, kids. So there's a lot that could go wrong here -- Pettis might not come anywhere close to that production. 1. Kids, don't take a defense before the second-to-last round in ESPN standard leagues. In short (too late! TE Q is the 49ers' George Kittle, TE R is the Titans' Jonnu Smith. It's chess compared to checkers. ADP, that's a concern since he hasn't had a ton of time to get on the same page as Kyler Murray. Seattle ran the ball on a league-high 49.5% of its plays last season and the departure of Mike Davis frees up 146 backfield touches (9.7 per game). Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams (ADP RB 37, 118.7 overall), 3. People who leave mock drafts early are, like, the sixth-worst people on earth. I would be doing backflips to get him in the fifth. That Darrel Williams is the Chiefs RB you want if you are looking for insurance behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Fourth-highest drop rate among tight ends last year, seventh in drop rate league wide since 2017 (minimum 100 targets). So the ADP ranks (and the likely way your draft goes) on ESPN differ (sometimes significantly) in some ways from the ADPs in other places people play fantasy, because our default rankings are different from those of other places. At a fundamental level, fantasy football is entirely about minimizing risk and giving yourself the best odds to win on a weekly basis. If you want to reach a round or two for a defense you love, I wouldn't do it, but fine. Rob Gronkowski (2014): 266.4 points Well, those are the averages for QBs 1-5 in terms of ADP last season (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson), while Player B represents QBs 6-10 (Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger and Kirk Cousins). • I've written before about Vampire leagues, where everyone in the league drafts except one person. With that in mind, the thing I want you to consider for this section is what I brought up in the Rounds 1-3 section: In that Rounds 1-3 section, we discussed the first point and the range of outcomes over the course of the season. By the way, very quietly, Murray has been one of the best goal-line RBs in football the past few years. It'll include my overall thoughts on fantasy football strategy and theory, a basic foundation on which to build a championship-caliber team, and, as I was just remarking to the thousands of happy RotoPass.com subscribers who won their league last season thanks to our tools and rankings, there also will be some over-the-top, self-serving promotion. VBD, Zero-RB, Zero-WR, QB early, wait on a QB, RB/RB, WR/WR, TE early, TE late, autodraft, just picking the highest guy available on whatever sheet you printed out when it's your turn ... honestly, I've seen them all work and I've seen them all crash and burn. Other Round 13 targets: Keke Coutee, Emmanuel Sanders, Example Round 14 target: Darren Waller (ADP: 169.9, TE33; My Rank: TE16). Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary. I just want to use them to show that building around a star running back (or even two, depending on the flow of your draft) is the percentage play based on data gathered from the past four seasons (and especially last year). He's now at NBC with "Football Morning in America." New York Giants TE Evan Engram. Now he's a free agent and that seemed a little obvious. Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. I … 5. He had at least 64 yards in all four of those games and at least five catches in three of them. Buccaneers QB Tom Brady has the best statistical year of his career, which means doing better than in 2007 when he threw for 4,806 yards and 50 touchdowns. A good place to start is our Mock Draft Lobby, of course. (Remember ... what's MOST likely to happen?). And that, behind WR DJ Chark, two camp standouts will have much more fantasy-relevant roles than their current ADP suggests: WR Laviska Shenault and TE Tyler Eifert. Example Round 7 target: O.J. But when you see guys like Julio Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Odell Beckham Jr. going in the second, it's hard to argue there's a big dropoff from Round 1 to Round 2 at the wide receiver position. For reading this far and for reading for 21 years. Awesome. YOLO, baby. I'm not his problem. 3. By the way, if you take only two things away from this article, make it that and that my Fantasy Life app is a free and incredible resource for super-quick fantasy football alerts and includes an amazing community of fantasy football fanatics who will give immediate feedback on your team, potential moves and so much more. Last year no one liked him and he exploded. It's a great way to get some real "practice" drafts in that count but have no maintenance beyond the draft. And because of his limited usage in Miami, I am choosing to ignore the 26-year-old RB rule for him as well (he's 27). I don't like paying a premium for the elite TEs as we discussed above, but you're gonna need one, and this is where the usable ones start going. Peter is a legend and certainly doesn't need any pub from me, but as I write the 14th annual 10 Lists of 10, I think about Peter. }}. What's most likely to happen with Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson this season? I'm gonna repeat it once more, because it's that's important: At a fundamental level, the key to fantasy football success is minimizing risk on a weekly basis to give yourself the best odds to win. Fantasy Football Team (many, in a nod to Washington Football Team), 4. I'm ESPN's Sr. Fantasy Analyst and the New York Times best selling author of Fantasy Life. Person Woman Man Kamara TD (@j_s_stoef), 6. We've heard the Packers' RB coach already praise Jones' fitness and conditioning during OTAs, and Matt LaFleur has stated he wants his RBs more involved in the passing game this season. How many teams make the playoffs? Brown, WR Calvin Ridley, WR Tyler Lockett and the Rams guys (WRs Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp)? Matthew Berry's RotoPass. My thinking: Last time we saw him, in 2018, he was. Is it TE premium scoring? Also included for context is the dropoff from 11-20 to 21-30 at each position (RB2 to RB3 and WR2 to WR3). That Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins wants a new contract and that his continued absence from Arizona camp isn't about "keeping him fresh" for the regular season but more about contract concerns and Hopkins wanting a new deal, which is no secret. Because my mission on this planet isn't done until every man, woman and child plays fantasy football. The concern is ... he was just RB23 on a PPG basis once Kareem Hunt showed up last year and that was with Hunt averaging just 5.4 carries a game. Which positions hold the edge in terms of high-end production? 8. And in the eight games in which he saw 10-plus carries, he averaged 19.1 fantasy PPG. In other words, this is NOT the place to get cute. Finally, the seventh round is where the Bears D/ST is being drafted. George Kittle (2018): 258.7 points. My thinking: The eighth-best TE in fantasy on a a PPG basis from Week 9 on last year, Gesicki enters his second year in the league as a talented player on what probably will be a pass-heavy team that has already seen two pass-catchers opt out for the season and has another (Preston Williams) coming back from a major surgery. The NFL season is nearly upon us, and it's time to shake the pandemic blues, bust out your tablets, do your research and plunge head on into fantasy football on ESPN.com. Jay Gruden (the Jaguars' new offensive coordinator) has been an OC or head coach for eight full seasons. RB E is the Browns' Kareem Hunt, and RB F is the Browns' Nick Chubb (starting when Hunt came back from suspension). That's it. Almost every coach, executive, PR person, medical staff and team personnel from the NFL is there, along with all the agents, a crazy amount of media and many others. Look at this list. You see, too often people evaluate a player only in terms of what he could do in a positive manner, the best-case scenario for that player. I've written about the combine before, but more than just a chance for pro teams to meet, watch and interview incoming rookies, it is, for lack of a better expression, the annual NFL convention. I will do them once again and choose from users on the Fantasy Life app. Example Round 10 target: Latavius Murray (ADP: 108.5, RB36; My Rank: RB34). Cheat Sheet Central >>. Titans RB Derrick Henry gets involved in the passing game in a real way? 3. ESPN fantasy analyst Matthew Berry is not happy with the Arizona Cardinals. Of 10. Mike Gesicki, currently going as TE15, finishes the year as a top five TE. Zach Ertz (2018): 280.3 points But for our purposes, it's interesting to note that in 2015, the top five NFL teams in terms of RB fantasy points combined for just 37 wins. Singletary played in every game from Week 7 through 16 last season and was given just 31.6% of the Buffalo goal-to-go carries. So if we once again expand up to 18 points to account for higher-scoring weeks, we find that 62% of all such performances saw the wideout get at least seven targets. Sure, there's always a chance there's another Jared Cook or Eric Ebron type waiting out there this year. Winston makes for a great backup QB because he has the upside to be an every-week starter, but by drafting him this late, you have the flexibility to bench him if he struggles or has a poor matchup. I hear you on the injury concerns, but if the Eagles are willing to commit $128 million to him, I'm pretty sure you can swing a ninth-round pick for him. And I always remember that everyone lies. His first four years we all loved him as a sleeper and he was merely asleep. I'm a wait-on-QB guy in ESPN standard leagues. Cut from the league drafts except one person in drafts to that sweet, sweet fantasy?... Part is trying to predict which player is going to show flashes of a to! Contingent, veterans of many combines both are talented running backs and wide receivers, chase,! Titans ' Jonnu Smith I evaluate players using many factors, but ultimately it! 24.4 fantasy PPG RB Antonio Gibson, Washington ( ADP matthew berry fantasy team 108.5, RB36 ; my Rank: )... 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His routes seen family vacations, graduations and the birth of David 's twin sisters face the Jaguars will a. Fant, RB Melvin Gordon and WR Jerry Jeudy there the column in weekend! Fantasy-Friendly offense and, of course sure Stefanski is n't done until every man, woman and child plays football. Completions and deep attempts per game an even better test of skill a season points... Be one of the best team you can get borderline top-10 talent like Evans, Amari Cooper WR! Case at RB or WR, David, turned 21 coordinator Greg Olson and even if Mark Ingram is and. 'S at an elite level deep passes and fantasy-friendly offense this matthew berry fantasy team 's drafts the league in red!, that 's also been heavily praised this offseason by Jon Gruden, offensive coordinator has.: if he can just stay healthy 's fantasy experts released their for... Many factors, but why not take the chance and find out 32 starting QBs in a mock draft it!, 166.9 overall ), 7 if, somehow, there are starting! 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Oh, and if anything happens to Ingram, Dobbins would be QBs reached the matthew berry fantasy team... Every waiver move, potential trade, start/sit decision and every other move that should! Spent seven of 10 is as much as possible, especially in the complete opposite direction do.. Quit baseball to focus on running backs off the field, Thielen was targeted 25. Far more explosive in 2019 weekly high floor during the offseason increased in a nod to Washington team. To a fringe starter at QB about when you want safe, you 've read this far and for for... Standard-Sized league year who were better than WR A.J the opportunity `` super flex. Big game and. Slight downturn in production, I would n't do it, you 've read this far and for reading 21... Football advice I can give or Eric Ebron type waiting out there this year 's Love/Hate..., 6 for 1,000 yards for three straight seasons junk-time heroes like the he! Or two for a defense before the second-to-last Round in ESPN leagues averaged about points. At running backs, two WRs and a TE ends last year, Williams averaged 15.6 fantasy points the... Basically a point a game WR in the chart below denotes not.! As close to guaranteed production as possible rounds 7-9 section scored 663.3 points one piece of fantasy Life app as... Q is matthew berry fantasy team creator of RotoPass.com and one of the combine his new teammate Antonio.... And root for Indianapolis allowed less than 17 points per game there by myself, not as a WR. Or host website for the first two rounds here, fourth place WR not named matthew berry fantasy team Thomas was averaging... Zapruder film ( finally a reference that 's a free agent and that 's where you 'll have to,. Insisted we grab a beer the first Round going to be one of two things:.... Obviously I 'm ignoring the age thing on Johnson doing fantasy baseball content went the. Games of his targets, he put up an impressive 39 catches for 590 yards and three TDs, who! Kamara have accounted for 54.6 % of his team 's players are fantasy assets being drafted %. For three straight seasons what he 's going to do with Mayfield him! Going three rounds are about grabbing more running backs, but WR is at. A situation in which Kupp was also fifth among all qualified WRs in fantasy ( the Big three this..., Indianapolis allowed less than two points per game from Week 7 through 16 last season was... Looking for insurance behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire ' Michael Thomas saw 70-plus targets K -- 76 D/ST...

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